Sports Betting Model is a betting system, that helps you to find a positive expected value (value bet) in games that other bettors may not.
Such a betting system helps you to estimate the probability for all outcomes in a certain game and then making unbiased betting selections, which are the key for success. In the core, the goal of such a betting model is to highlight profitable “betting” opportunities by being more accurate than sportsbooks and the actions of the betting market.
Do sports betting models work?
Yes, good sports betting algorithms find value opportunities.
Why betting models are so important?
Betting with predictive models will give you the advantage because:
- EXCLUDE GUT FEELINGS: It allows you to exclude your feelings and emotions and help you to focus on numbers and the facts, which finally leads to smarter and more rational bet decisions. Betting based on your feelings (greed or fear) is one of the main reasons why so many people are placing bad wagers.
- VALUE BETTING: The holy grail of successful betting is finding a value bet. This is the question we try to answer every day when we see hundreds of games. It is the ability to identify the advantage against a bookmaker’s odds and of course the behavior of the market. The concept of a value is pretty simple that everyone already understands and it is basically the difference between the price that is offered and the price that should be “fair”. If such a bet is priced for less than it’s worth, then we call it a value. Investing in value bets is a crucial part of the life of every professional sports gambler. The problem however starts with the numbers and probabilities and this is where most bettors are stuck. We can all agree that the odds are expressed with the numbers (odds are numbers, not colors for example) and to find out if some odds are priced less than they are worth you must come up with your number. This discrepancy between estimated probabilities and implied bookmakers’ probabilities represents the value. And the betting model is the tool that answers on this question. Finding a value bet based on feelings or non-probabilistic methods is just guessing. And we don’t want to guess. This is why such betting algorithms are so crucial for success.