Sports Betting Model is a betting system, that helps you to find a positive expected value (value bet) in games that other bettors may not.
Such a betting system helps you to estimate the probability for all outcomes in a certain game and then making unbiased betting selections, which are the key for success. In the core, the goal of such a betting model is to highlight profitable “gambling” opportunities by being more accurate than sportsbooks and the actions of the betting market.
Do sports betting models work?
Yes, if the sports betting algorithms, that are part of the betting model are set correctly, they will find value opportunities.
Why sports betting algorithms are so crucial?
It is crucial because of two reasons:
- It allows you to exclude your feelings and emotions and help you to focus on numbers and the facts, which finally leads to smarter and rational bet decisions. Betting based on your feelings (greed or fear) is one of the main reasons why so many people are placing bad wagers.
- The holy grail of successful betting is finding a value bet. This is the question we try to answer every day when we see hundreds of games. It is the ability to identify the advantage against a bookmakers odds and of course the behavior of the market. The concept of a value is pretty simple that everyone already understands and it is basically the difference between the price that is offered and the price that should be “fair”. If such bet is priced for less than it’s worth, then we call it a value. Investing in value bets is the crucial part of the life every professional sports gambler. The problem however starts with the numbers and probabilities and this is where most bettors are stuck. We can all agree that the odds are expressed with the numbers (odds are numbers, not colours for example) and to find out if some odds are priced less than they are worth you must come with your number. This discrepancy between estimated probabilities and implied bookmakers’ probabilities represent the value. And the betting model is the tool that answers on this question. Finding a value bet based on feelings or non-probabilistic methods is just guessing. And we don’t want to guess. This is why such betting algorithms are so crucial for success.
Can you win at betting?
Yes you can win at sports betting, but before we go little bit deeper with this topic, please forget everything you know about betting – just for a moment. There is not much helpful information available on this topic anyway.
Albert Einstein once said… insanity is doing the same things over and over again and expecting different results.
If you try hard and you still lose in sports betting, you are probably doing something wrong. Maybe it is now the time to change your betting method and learn something new.
Important Lesson:
Making Money in Sports Betting Has Almost Nothing to Do with the Sport
Sports gamblers like to say:
“I know this sport”
“I love baseball”
“I bet for 30 Years”
But…
Betting for 30 Years and Being a Profitable Sports Bettor for 30 years is not the same.
Sports is one thing. Sports Betting is another thing. Profitable Sports Betting is completely different thing from both.
This is the first lesson we all must completely understand.
If profitable sports betting would be correlated to the love for sport, then all professional coaches, fans and players would be the best sports handicappers. Imaging Tom Brady or Leo Messi as the best sports handicappers.
Of course this is not how this works and we must completely understand the difference between these 3 things: SPORTS, SPORTS BETTING and PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING.
How do sport betting companies make money?
To explain the difference between Sport, Sports Betting and Profitable Sports Betting, we must understand how betting companies make money.
Most sports bettors think, that betting sites, make money because someone bet on his favourite team and this team lose the game. This is not exactly how this works and this is definitely not their business model.
Bookmakers make money because they never offer FAIR ODDS.
Every time you make a bet, they “take” some commission, because they have created the edge from the start. This is why we see the odds -110 vs -110 instead of +100 vs +100, which would be fair. In decimal odds we see 1.91 vs 1.91. And that difference is the margin (vig, vigorish, juice,…) as we like to call.
And once they have betting advantage, the only thing they need is the liquidity and patience. The patience is easy.
So, the question was how to create a good liquidity and where to find a lot of people where majority of them will not use any sports betting analytics, but will still be betting a lot of money every day.
SPORT is just the perfect pool of information and people for bookmakers
Sport is a perfect pool of people and information for bookmakers. Not only that this a huge pool of people who are emotionally involved, but it is also a great way to create an illusion that someone “knows” the sport. Games are every day. Watching is fun. People can win short term and get the feeling what winning in sports betting looks like.
But what most bettors don’t understand that sport is just one good way how to gather people, because it is simply very popular.
What most bettors and gamblers don’t understand is that if once in the future some new things will be much more popular and will give a great way for bookmakers to gather a lot of people who are willing to watch and bet these events, they will simply switch to these events.
Some examples are esports betting, politics betting, maybe once in the future reality show betting,… anything where you can attract a lot of people, who are willing to watch games and bet.
Watching Games to Make Bet Predictions is a WIN for bookmakers
When we have the sport and a lot of people, who are willing to bet on these events, then we also know that they will watch these games.
But there are two problems, most bettors don’t see
The first problem is how our brains work and the dopamine that is released when we bet and watch games.
Studies shows that the release of dopamine during sports gambling occurs in brain areas similar to those activated by taking drugs. Excitement is much much bigger when there is a combination of watching games and betting.
The second problem most bettors don’t see is Human Error Data Collection in Sports Betting.
Many sports bettors will say, they watch games, because they know better what to bet. But what is watching games basically?
It is collecting the data. And the problem is that most bettors think they can collect the data and correctly analyse it by watching games.
It is a mistake and sports is just a sport. It is used as a pool of information and people, who are willing to bet.
The question should not be, what sport you love, but what sport you can analyse, find positive expected value and finally how to make money in sports betting.
BETTING ON SPORT…
is simply activity of predicting sports results and placing a wager on the outcome. That’s it.
If you start researching Sports Betting Guide, you will find tons of advice how to place a bet, what are the odds, where to bet,… but most of these information are completely useless when it comes to profitable sports betting.
How does sports betting work?
What are the basic terms of sports betting?
What does ATS mean on betting?
What is Over/Under betting?
Answers on these questions will not make you a winning sports bettor. Answers will make you a sports bettor, noting more. In other words, you will know how to place a bet.
Making a sports bet is easy. The only thing you need is $5, the internet or if you are lucky, you can have a local bookmaker in your Town.
Millions of people bet every day and they are sports bettors. But they are not necessary sports bettors that make money and definitely not profitable sports bettors who will have a positive lifetime betting balance. Only 3% of all bettors are Elite Sports Bettors.
So what is the difference between sports betting and profitable sports betting?
This should be the right question and keep reading, because I will explain
PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING
Profitable sports betting is investing with the intention to make a profit. The odds are the prices that you will be paying and if you will pay bad price you can not win. Period!
It is not about love for the sport, it is not about how many times you watch games, it is not about how long have you played some sport, but exclusively about placing yourself in a position, where you can make rational bet decisions.
Professional Sports Bettors will never involve emotions with the sport they love. In fact in most cases it is much much better to separate business from fun. When it comes to betting for money, the main focus is profit.
Value Bet – The concept of making money in sports betting
The basic concept of making money, not only in sports betting, but in general is to find the value.
The value can be described as a difference between two numbers. The first number will be always offered by sports betting market (the odds). The second number you must find out. And the difference is what we call a value bet.
Imagine that you want to make a profit by selling a Beer in your restaurant. What do you need to do?
You need to buy a beer for the price A and sell it for the price B. And B minus A must be positive in your favour.
And I believe that we all agree that if you will buy a beer for lower price and later sell it for bigger, you can expect a profit. This is the simple concept of making money and this should be the starting point here too.
In sports betting one price is the price that you see on bookmakers sites.
In the picture above we can see the odds from Pinnacle and the odds of 2.200 on Tampa Bay Rays. If you bet $100, you can expect a profit of +$120 (if Tampa wins of course). And we can all agree that this is the price you will pay for this “bet product”.
This price can change during the day and the biggest question is what is the right price to bet? Is this price good?
And to answer on this question, we must quickly touch the sports betting odds topic.
How Betting Odds Work?
Betting odds are basically probabilities of the outcomes turned into the numbers. This must be clear.
Every single game (or betting event) has 2 or more possible outcomes. If there is only one outcome, bookmakers wouldn’t offer such bet. This is why there is NO Locks, Guaranteed Winners or Guaranteed Bets in sports betting. All these words are used just for marketing purposes.
These numbers or probabilities are simply estimations of the chances of one team versus other team (or one outcome versus another outcome).
If one team has 50% of chance to win a game, we can easily calculate fair odds:
1/0.5 = 2.00 (in US odds +100)
So, the fair price if one team has 50% of chance winning a game is 2.00 and that means, that if you bet $100, you should make a profit of +$100.
After bookmakers include their margins (juice, vig), this price is little bit lower. So instead of 2.00 (+100), they offer for the same “product” the odds of 1.91 (-110) for example.
This price can later raise or fall, depending on different factors, which include the action of sports bettors and involved money.
And our goal is to estimate our price independently from bookmakers because only by comparing projected odds (estimated price) with the bookmaker’s odds will give you the answer on value bet. And this is exactly Number A minus number B, which is the basic concept of making money.
This can not be estimated properly in any human brain or by intuition – at least not on 1000 bets. This can not be estimated in our head and this can not be estimated by watching games or just reading the news.
This is why we use sports betting models.
Sports Betting Models are the Heart of Profitable Sports Betting.
Winning Theory of Betting and Importance of Sports Betting Models
Winning betting theory is pretty simple, despite I see that most bettors simply ignore these rules. Ignoring or not understanding the theory will not help you on your sports betting journey. Here are 5 simple rules of profitable sports betting and how they are correlated to my sports betting models.
#1 ESTIMATE YOUR BETTING ODDS
I hope that we all agree now, that the odds are probabilities turned into the numbers and they represent the prices on betting market. So, the first step before you make a bet is to estimate your own probabilities, independently from bookmakers, because you must have an idea what is the price you are willing to pay.
I we don’t know what price we are willing to pay, then we are just guessing. I use my SPORTS BETTING MODELS created in spreadsheets where I simply estimate probabilities, spreads or totals.
Example of my estimated probabilities from my CSGO betting model:
#2 COMPARE YOUR ODDS WITH BOOKMAKERS ODDS
Once you have your estimated probabilities, you can simply turn them into your own odds, which is basically the price that can be compared with bookmakers odds. It is basically your price vs bookmakers price.
Example of my comparison of my estimated odds and bookmakers odds from my CSGO betting model:
#3 FIND THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN ODDS
After you compare your odds with the bookmakers odds, you must look for the discrepancy between the numbers. If your predictive analytics in sports betting is good, then you can exploit possible bets. This is what we call a value bet. This is your Number A – Number B.
Example of my estimated value bets from my CSGO betting model:
#4 BET SMALL % of YOUR BANKROLL
Sports betting is always a log game. I don’t know any bettor, who had a winning day or month, took betting profits and go away. I didn’t met such a person yet. Majority of sports gamblers will bet until they lose everything. Winning in short period of time is even more dangerous, because it can give you a false illusion, that you have the advantage against sports betting market, where in fact you were just lucky.
This is why profitable sports betting is always a long game. And this is how you should set your plan and the game.
Always bet only small percentage of your bankroll, because this is a game of percentages and no matter how good you are you will face losing streaks. Winning streaks are easy to handle – everyone can do it. But the difference is made in losing streaks. Only the best can survive them. And playing small % is the first step of playing smart.
My betting models estimate recommended stakes.
#5 TRACK YOUR BETS (Profit, Yield, Closing Line Value,…)
Always track your bets, because this is the only way to see if your betting makes sense. All professional sports bettors track their bets from different angles and from different perspective.
I use my betting spreadsheet, where I track all important info about the game, profit, w-l record, yield, ROI, closing line value, p-value, opening odds versus closing odds,… But what is most important I can see how my betting model perform.
But what do you do once you understand these simple betting principles?
Is understanding enough?
I see a lot of sports bettors who come to me and ask me questions about how to start betting with the numbers, which is great because I see that more and more people see how important this is.
It is definitely the next step into the profitable World of sports handicapping.
With the internet and all the information, there is no excuse anymore to not understand how profitable betting works.
But the question is…
What do you do once you decide to make something more from betting?
What do you do once you understand basic principles of profitable betting?
Is understanding these principles enough?
I started to hear from more and more people who’d already done the basics and were left wondering:
“What’s next?”
What are sports bettors at the next level — and the level after that — doing?
These were the same questions I’d had to ask myself when I started betting. How were other bettors in my situation jumping to the next level?
I knew there was more than just understanding gambling probabilities, betting margins, sports betting market,…
And I found it.
Sports Betting Models
I soon realised that in order to make money long term, I need to be better than the competition. And this competition are not just bookmakers, but also other sports bettors.
Sports betting is always a relative competition against this huge betting market. So, I knew I had to be better than the rest.
I also knew that most bettors don’t use numbers, most bettors have no discipline and most bettors have just insufficient knowledge about betting basics.
Betting guides that we find on the internet are in most cases useless, because they are targeting SEO ranking in sports betting World, instead of targeting real and quality questions and answers.
So, the next step was to create betting models, that will work and then the dirty job. Test, improve and put a lot of effort.
This is the best way to compare my number with bookmakers numbers.
This can not be done in your head or by intuition. At least not on the lung run.
Brains and Emotions – Imperfect Betting Software
Sports Handicappers who make their bets without projecting the odds before they place a wager are just guessing wit their imperfect betting software – their brains and emotions.
Reading news, watching games, looking at betting trends,… this is just one way how to collect the data.
But if you can not collect correctly the data and analyse it with probabilistic method, then you are just guessing.
Brains are just imperfect betting software and because our emotions change daily, this your “brain” betting software is making a lot of mistakes.
It is crucial to have a betting software, that will process the data without any emotions and estimate probabilities the best as possible.
And this is computer.
In 2017 I was tracking separately MLB bets based on my betting model and based on gut feeling plays:
Baseball betting model of course outperformed my gut feeling plays.
And this is the missing point for many sports bettors.
They are constantly looking for picks on the internet and that sports handicapper that will make them rich, but this is not going to happen.
Following Sports Handicappers Picks DOES NOT WORK!
No matter if you follow free picks or you pay for sports betting picks, following in sports betting doesn’t work and you have a big chance that you will search for the right sports handicapper your whole life, spending thousands of dollars for betting services and you will still lose.
If you understand the importance of relative competition in sports betting, the concept of value and line movement, following does not make any sense in sports betting.
You have the best chance to make your own bets, learn how to create a betting model and build this knowledge and income source for a lifetime.
I am sure many if you already spent a lot of money for such picks services or are simply disappointed with other peoples picks.
Sports betting is not a passive income, where you can follow other handicappers.
This is why you SHOULD focus on your betting knowledge instead of focusing on other sports handicappers and their betting picks:
If you want to master the level you’re at now, you have to reconsider each of your beliefs now.
You made it this far because you worked hard, you stayed disciplined, you didn’t listen to get-rich-quick schemes or social media sports handicappers. You’ve already won.
Yes, you’ve won, because more than 90% of bettors in the World will just bring money in sports betting World and will end with negative lifetime balance.
So, you are probably asking me, what is the next step.
The next step is learning how to create a betting system, keep growing, and enjoy the freedom you’ve earned. Without following other bettors tips.
Imagine that you are the one who makes projections every day.
Imagine that you are the one who makes profitable bet predictions, instead of following and paying hundreds and thousands of dollars each month for betting advice, that is basically not backed with any betting model.
Believe me… you don’t need to follow someone, who just watch games or read news. You can do it by yourself, if you want. All these results will soon regress to the mean and people lose because of margins.
You can create sports betting system that will work for you. You don’t need to bet 10 sports. It can be just one league, one bet type, that will work for you.
I’ll show you how. (And I’ll show you the things you’re not thinking about but should be.)
It’s time to protect all your hard work, passion for sports betting, time, money to grow it and enjoy it.
It’s time to move past the basics and take your sports handicapping to the next level.