#1 ESTIMATE YOUR BETTING ODDS
I hope that we all agree now, that the odds are probabilities turned into the numbers and they represent the prices on betting market. So, the first step before you make a bet is to estimate your own probabilities, independently from bookmakers, because you must have an idea what is the price you are willing to pay.
I we don’t know what price we are willing to pay, then we are just guessing. I use my SPORTS BETTING MODELS created in spreadsheets where I simply estimate probabilities, spreads or totals.
Example of my estimated probabilities from my CSGO betting model:
#2 COMPARE YOUR ODDS WITH BOOKMAKERS ODDS
Once you have your estimated probabilities, you can simply turn them into your own odds, which is basically the price that can be compared with bookmakers odds. It is basically your price vs bookmakers price.
Example of my comparison of my estimated odds and bookmakers odds from my CSGO betting model:
#3 FIND THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN ODDS
After you compare your odds with the bookmakers odds, you must look for the discrepancy between the numbers. If your predictive analytics in sports betting is good, then you can exploit possible bets. This is what we call a value bet. This is your Number A – Number B.
Example of my estimated value bets from my CSGO betting model:
#4 BET SMALL % of YOUR BANKROLL
Sports betting is always a log game. I don’t know any bettor, who had a winning day or month, took betting profits and go away. I didn’t met such a person yet. Majority of sports gamblers will bet until they lose everything. Winning in short period of time is even more dangerous, because it can give you a false illusion, that you have the advantage against sports betting market, where in fact you were just lucky.
This is why profitable sports betting is always a long game. And this is how you should set your plan and the game.
Always bet only small percentage of your bankroll, because this is a game of percentages and no matter how good you are you will face losing streaks. Winning streaks are easy to handle – everyone can do it. But the difference is made in losing streaks. Only the best can survive them. And playing small % is the first step of playing smart.
My betting models estimate recommended stakes.
#5 TRACK YOUR BETS (Profit, Yield, Closing Line Value,…)
Always track your bets, because this is the only way to see if your betting makes sense. All professional sports bettors track their bets from different angles and from different perspective.
I use my betting spreadsheet, where I track all important info about the game, profit, w-l record, yield, ROI, closing line value, p-value, opening odds versus closing odds,… But what is most important I can see how my betting model perform.
But what do you do once you understand these simple betting principles?
Is understanding enough?
I see a lot of sports bettors who come to me and ask me questions about how to start betting with the numbers, which is great because I see that more and more people see how important this is.
It is definitely the next step into the profitable World of sports handicapping.
With the internet and all the information, there is no excuse anymore to not understand how profitable betting works.
But the question is…
What do you do once you decide to make something more from betting?
What do you do once you understand basic principles of profitable betting?
Is understanding these principles enough?
I started to hear from more and more people who’d already done the basics and were left wondering:
What are sports bettors at the next level — and the level after that — doing?
These were the same questions I’d had to ask myself when I started betting. How were other bettors in my situation jumping to the next level?
I knew there was more than just understanding gambling probabilities, betting margins, sports betting market,…
And I found it.
Sports Betting Models
I soon realised that in order to make money long term, I need to be better than the competition. And this competition are not just bookmakers, but also other sports bettors.
Sports betting is always a relative competition against this huge betting market. So, I knew I had to be better than the rest.
I also knew that most bettors don’t use numbers, most bettors have no discipline and most bettors have just insufficient knowledge about betting basics.
Betting guides that we find on the internet are in most cases useless, because they are targeting SEO ranking in sports betting World, instead of targeting real and quality questions and answers.
So, the next step was to create betting models, that will work and then the dirty job. Test, improve and put a lot of effort.
This is the best way to compare my number with bookmakers numbers.
This can not be done in your head or by intuition. At least not on the lung run.
Brains and Emotions – Imperfect Betting Software
Sports Handicappers who make their bets without projecting the odds before they place a wager are just guessing wit their imperfect betting software – their brains and emotions.
Reading news, watching games, looking at betting trends,… this is just one way how to collect the data.
But if you can not collect correctly the data and analyse it with probabilistic method, then you are just guessing.
Brains are just imperfect betting software and because our emotions change daily, this your “brain” betting software is making a lot of mistakes.
It is crucial to have a betting software, that will process the data without any emotions and estimate probabilities the best as possible.
And this is computer.
In 2017 I was tracking separately MLB bets based on my betting model and based on gut feeling plays:
Baseball betting model of course outperformed my gut feeling plays.
And this is the missing point for many sports bettors.
They are constantly looking for picks on the internet and that sports handicapper that will make them rich, but this is not going to happen.
Following Sports Handicappers Picks DOES NOT WORK!
No matter if you follow free picks or you pay for sports betting picks, following in sports betting doesn’t work and you have a big chance that you will search for the right sports handicapper your whole life, spending thousands of dollars for betting services and you will still lose.
If you understand the importance of relative competition in sports betting, the concept of value and line movement, following does not make any sense in sports betting.
You have the best chance to make your own bets, learn how to create a betting model and build this knowledge and income source for a lifetime.
I am sure many if you already spent a lot of money for such picks services or are simply disappointed with other peoples picks.
Sports betting is not a passive income, where you can follow other handicappers.
This is why you SHOULD focus on your betting knowledge instead of focusing on other sports handicappers and their betting picks:
If you want to master the level you’re at now, you have to reconsider each of your beliefs now.
You made it this far because you worked hard, you stayed disciplined, you didn’t listen to get-rich-quick schemes or social media sports handicappers. You’ve already won.
Yes, you’ve won, because more than 90% of bettors in the World will just bring money in sports betting World and will end with negative lifetime balance.
So, you are probably asking me, what is the next step.
The next step is learning how to create a betting system, keep growing, and enjoy the freedom you’ve earned. Without following other bettors tips.
Imagine that you are the one who makes projections every day.
Imagine that you are the one who makes profitable bet predictions, instead of following and paying hundreds and thousands of dollars each month for betting advice, that is basically not backed with any betting model.
Believe me… you don’t need to follow someone, who just watch games or read news. You can do it by yourself, if you want. All these results will soon regress to the mean and people lose because of margins.
You can create sports betting system that will work for you. You don’t need to bet 10 sports. It can be just one league, one bet type, that will work for you.
I’ll show you how. (And I’ll show you the things you’re not thinking about but should be.)
It’s time to protect all your hard work, passion for sports betting, time, money to grow it and enjoy it.
It’s time to move past the basics and take your sports handicapping to the next level.