Do You Want to Make Your Own Bet Predictions Instead of Following other Sports Handicappers?
If the answer is Yes – this is were I can help you
Let me Quickly Introduce Myself…
Hi, I’m MB, Sports Bettor and Entrepreneur, founder of Underdogchance.com and other betting sites, where the main focus is on making a positive impact on sports bettors lives all over the World.
I started betting in 1998 and since then I am part of Sports Betting World. I bet for myself, I create my own betting models in spreadsheets and I constantly try to improve.
I was lucky, because my father was a professor of math and he showed me the love for the numbers. This helped me later to understand sports betting from different perspective.
At the same time I was not only betting for myself, but I was involved in sports betting communities, forums and since then I am asking myself, why so many people lose and why they can not even understand the basics of sports betting. Because once you understand that sports betting is has almost nothing to do with sports alone, but more with the numbers and how you find positive expected value then your betting experience changes forever.
I was studying Water Science And Environmental Engineering, where I upgraded my knowledge about statistics and created my fist models in spreadsheets. Later I used this knowledge and started created my own sports betting models, that are based on probabilistic methods.
I decided to help sports bettors to change their old bad betting habits and start looking at betting through numbers.
My #1 MLB BASEBALL BETTING MODEL
$1000 bettor made +$113,200 since 2016
#1 ESTIMATE YOUR BETTING ODDS
I hope that we all agree now, that the odds are probabilities turned into the numbers and they represent the prices on betting market. So, the first step before you make a bet is to estimate your own probabilities, independently from bookmakers, because you must have an idea what is the price you are willing to pay.
I we don’t know what price we are willing to pay, then we are just guessing. I use my SPORTS BETTING MODELS created in spreadsheets where I simply estimate probabilities, spreads or totals.
Example of my estimated probabilities from my CSGO betting model:
#2 COMPARE YOUR ODDS WITH BOOKMAKERS ODDS
Once you have your estimated probabilities, you can simply turn them into your own odds, which is basically the price that can be compared with bookmakers odds. It is basically your price vs bookmakers price.
Example of my comparison of my estimated odds and bookmakers odds from my CSGO betting model:
#3 FIND THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN ODDS
After you compare your odds with the bookmakers odds, you must look for the discrepancy between the numbers. If your predictive analytics in sports betting is good, then you can exploit possible bets. This is what we call a value bet. This is your Number A – Number B.
Example of my estimated value bets from my CSGO betting model:
#4 BET SMALL % of YOUR BANKROLL
Sports betting is always a log game. I don’t know any bettor, who had a winning day or month, took betting profits and go away. I didn’t met such a person yet. Majority of sports gamblers will bet until they lose everything. Winning in short period of time is even more dangerous, because it can give you a false illusion, that you have the advantage against sports betting market, where in fact you were just lucky.
This is why profitable sports betting is always a long game. And this is how you should set your plan and the game.
Always bet only small percentage of your bankroll, because this is a game of percentages and no matter how good you are you will face losing streaks. Winning streaks are easy to handle – everyone can do it. But the difference is made in losing streaks. Only the best can survive them. And playing small % is the first step of playing smart.
My betting models estimate recommended stakes.
#5 TRACK YOUR BETS (Profit, Yield, Closing Line Value,…)
Always track your bets, because this is the only way to see if your betting makes sense. All professional sports bettors track their bets from different angles and from different perspective.
I use my betting spreadsheet, where I track all important info about the game, profit, w-l record, yield, ROI, closing line value, p-value, opening odds versus closing odds,… But what is most important I can see how my betting model perform.
But what do you do once you understand these simple betting principles?
Is understanding enough?
I see a lot of sports bettors who come to me and ask me questions about how to start betting with the numbers, which is great because I see that more and more people see how important this is.
It is definitely the next step into the profitable World of sports handicapping.
With the internet and all the information, there is no excuse anymore to not understand how profitable betting works.
But the question is…
What do you do once you decide to make something more from betting?
What do you do once you understand basic principles of profitable betting?
Is understanding these principles enough?
I started to hear from more and more people who’d already done the basics and were left wondering:
What are sports bettors at the next level — and the level after that — doing?
These were the same questions I’d had to ask myself when I started betting. How were other bettors in my situation jumping to the next level?
I knew there was more than just understanding gambling probabilities, betting margins, sports betting market,…
And I found it.
Sports Betting Models
I soon realised that in order to make money long term, I need to be better than the competition. And this competition are not just bookmakers, but also other sports bettors.
Sports betting is always a relative competition against this huge betting market. So, I knew I had to be better than the rest.
I also knew that most bettors don’t use numbers, most bettors have no discipline and most bettors have just insufficient knowledge about betting basics.
Betting guides that we find on the internet are in most cases useless, because they are targeting SEO ranking in sports betting World, instead of targeting real and quality questions and answers.
So, the next step was to create betting models, that will work and then the dirty job. Test, improve and put a lot of effort.
This is the best way to compare my number with bookmakers numbers.
This can not be done in your head or by intuition. At least not on the lung run.
Brains and Emotions – Imperfect Betting Software
Sports Handicappers who make their bets without projecting the odds before they place a wager are just guessing wit their imperfect betting software – their brains and emotions.
Reading news, watching games, looking at betting trends,… this is just one way how to collect the data.
But if you can not collect correctly the data and analyse it with probabilistic method, then you are just guessing.
Brains are just imperfect betting software and because our emotions change daily, this your “brain” betting software is making a lot of mistakes.
It is crucial to have a betting software, that will process the data without any emotions and estimate probabilities the best as possible.
And this is computer.
In 2017 I was tracking separately MLB bets based on my betting model and based on gut feeling plays:
Baseball betting model of course outperformed my gut feeling plays.
And this is the missing point for many sports bettors.
They are constantly looking for picks on the internet and that sports handicapper that will make them rich, but this is not going to happen.
Following Sports Handicappers Picks DOES NOT WORK!
No matter if you follow free picks or you pay for sports betting picks, following in sports betting doesn’t work and you have a big chance that you will search for the right sports handicapper your whole life, spending thousands of dollars for betting services and you will still lose.
If you understand the importance of relative competition in sports betting, the concept of value and line movement, following does not make any sense in sports betting.
You have the best chance to make your own bets, learn how to create a betting model and build this knowledge and income source for a lifetime.
I am sure many if you already spent a lot of money for such picks services or are simply disappointed with other peoples picks.
Sports betting is not a passive income, where you can follow other handicappers.
This is why you SHOULD focus on your betting knowledge instead of focusing on other sports handicappers and their betting picks:
If you want to master the level you’re at now, you have to reconsider each of your beliefs now.
You made it this far because you worked hard, you stayed disciplined, you didn’t listen to get-rich-quick schemes or social media sports handicappers. You’ve already won.
Yes, you’ve won, because more than 90% of bettors in the World will just bring money in sports betting World and will end with negative lifetime balance.
So, you are probably asking me, what is the next step.
The next step is learning how to create a betting system, keep growing, and enjoy the freedom you’ve earned. Without following other bettors tips.
Imagine that you are the one who makes projections every day.
Imagine that you are the one who makes profitable bet predictions, instead of following and paying hundreds and thousands of dollars each month for betting advice, that is basically not backed with any betting model.
Believe me… you don’t need to follow someone, who just watch games or read news. You can do it by yourself, if you want. All these results will soon regress to the mean and people lose because of margins.
You can create sports betting system that will work for you. You don’t need to bet 10 sports. It can be just one league, one bet type, that will work for you.
I’ll show you how. (And I’ll show you the things you’re not thinking about but should be.)
It’s time to protect all your hard work, passion for sports betting, time, money to grow it and enjoy it.
It’s time to move past the basics and take your sports handicapping to the next level.
A Journey into The Mind of A Successful Sports Bettor is a unique online sports betting course that gives you an insider’s look at how I have created sports betting models, how I think, how I bet and what I make money in sports betting.
This is advanced — we focus on the questions, challenges, and betting methods unique to individuals who have already mastered the sports betting basics and want to know “What is the next step to become a winning bettor?”
This is fast — I’ve condensed everything into 7 MODULES. Take it at your own pace and come back whenever you want.
This is practical — I’ve included sheets, tools, videos, and quick-start guides to make it easy to apply what you’ll learn.
Easy to understand — I’ve seen many very complex books about statistics and betting and realistically an average bettor will never go that deep. Most bettors will also not learn complex programming languages like Python or R statistics. This is why this course is so valuable for many many bettors, because the sheets are easy to understand, not very complex and the core of my models are explained on a simple way.
Based on realistic results — All my models and bet results are tested and in real life based on every day real betting situations. It is not just theory.
Download my private betting models — Not only I will show you how to make sports betting models in spreadsheets, you will also get my private betting models to download, so you can either use them, adjust them or just use them as a sporting point.
This online betting course will show you how I bet, how I use profitable betting models — and how to keep winning.
This online betting course is the ONLY sports betting course, where:
- Results are based on real results, not just theory
- Sports handicapper shows his true formulas and betting models, that he uses for himself.
- We go trough all basics from winning mindset, betting fundamentals, building a betting model and generating income streams in sports betting.
- You’ll learn how to estimate your own odds
- You’ll know exactly what you can expect from sports handicapping and investing
- You’ll know how to set right strategy
- You will completely avoid mistakes that other losing sports gamblers make
- You will have a chance to connect with other members in our secret chat group, where you can share projections, ideas, models and your experiences.
And I must point out one very important thing here…
It is a lifetime access.
Almost all bettors struggle with monthly subscriptions, following picks and on the long run betting without the edge will eat their bankrolls.
Sports betting must be set as a lifetime mission, with the goal of positive lifetime balance.
Going 12-3 on Sunday and finishing with negative lifetime betting balance is not what we want.
Sports betting must become jour profitable JOURNEY!
And this journey will be paid off if you will make right decisions now.
Sports bettors will pay thousands and thousands of dollars for sports betting tips every year. Most of these handicappers who will sell picks don’t make money by actual betting anyway and it is in most cases simply marketing skill, not a betting skill.
We have an idea what skilled bettor is. He is using predictive analytics, probabilistic methods, have proven bet record, talk about closing line value,… and most handicappers simply don’t do these things. But still bettors pay thousands of thousands of dollars every single month.
The worst part is that they lose even more money by betting.
This is why this betting course and lifetime access is so valuable. You will learn how I bet, you will learn how I use statistics in sports betting, you will learn how to create a betting model, you will learn how to make money in sports betting world, you will get access to my private betting models and you will connect with same thinking sports bettors that make amazing results.
Here is the picture from one of our students, who made
+68.31 UNITS in MLB betting season 2020
That’s +$6,831 of profit for $100 bettors.
It’s amazing result and he didn’t follow anyone, he simply learned how to bet baseball with MLB betting model.
And that’s just small sample of the insights into this lifetime betting course.
If you’re ready to change your betting experience forever, you’ll learn what to bet, when to bet, why it’s important, and how to actually make money.
That’s not all, though. I’ve always available if you have any help after you watch and practice the course
You must understand, that I am committed – TO HELP YOU!
Join today and unlock my private betting spreadsheets, tools, and templates
My #1 Baseball Betting System
My baseball betting system includes complete understanding the numbers I use for prediction the games, strategy and of course sport betting algorithm that outputs winning percentages and projected betting odds.
MLB baseball season has 2430 regular games and I have the ability to analyse every single game.
I use advanced statistics and different game situations
Every team is lineup based with every player and his stats. Trades and injures can be adjusted easily.
The core of the model is there and the only thing I check is the lineups and injuries every day. Then I simply select the right pitcher, team and add my bookmakers odds. Betting model then outputs value bets and recommended stake.
Dime bettors made with this betting model since 2016
CSGO betting model – The Future of sports investing
I always try to improve and look for new things in sports betting World. eSports is one of the next big things, where more and more sports bettors will be involved. Even if we only check current trends in business and investing, we can see that eSports is growing.
More and more people watch and play video games and because of that this is another great pool of information and people for bookmakers.
During COVID-19 in 2020, when there was basically no traditional sports to bet, eSports became very popular. Many sports gamblers started betting esports, because they needed some action.
I decided to start researching this field from the scratch and after I researched different leagues/types of eSports games, I decided to build a betting model for CSGO – Counter Strike Global Offensive.
This is one of the first and few such betting models out there and I see a huge opportunity in CSGO betting in next few years.
The market is still young, there is still not a lot of smart money in eSports and definitely there is still not many eSports betting models out there.
This gives me advantage and big opportunity.
Above is the example of CSGO betting spreadsheet, where I get my own betting odds and probabilities that are compared with bookmakers odds.
The model shows me where is the value bet.
If you join today you will get this template too.
And yes 🙂 You will also get all next updates and improvements of this model in the future.
Other Sports Betting Models I have created
The first idea of my betting course was to show my way of betting and especially how I bet baseball, because this was my core.
But after seeing that the problem is much much deeper in sports betting world, when it comes to understand the odds, probabilities and even the basics, I decided that I will open the doors to my mind as well.
Not only I decided to show you how I built betting models I also show you how I think, how I bet and later I decided to show you the way how you can create your own betting models on a simple way for other sports.
Some of these betting models I used for myself or just tested real time against bookmakers odds.
The combination of everything above is huge value for every single bettor, because he can learn the basics of sports betting models in google sheets and find his own way.
I helped hundreds of students and bettors, who have created different sports betting models based on my ideas.
Here are other betting models that I have created and helped our members to make smarter bets.
International basketball betting model
The goal of this model was to create some very basic and simple model for international basketball leagues, where we can compare our projected spreads against bookmakers spreads and then exploit the bets, where the difference between spread is big enough to make a bet.
NBA betting model
In 2019 I have created NBA model based on lineups, where I put all the players in the lineups and created matchups. The model projects simple spreads that are compared to bookmakers spreads.
NHL betting model
NHL betting is based on lineups and NHL statistics numbers like Corsi and Fenwick. The goal of the model is pretty same like in MLB. It estimates the probabilities of the outcomes and then we calculate projected odds. These odds are compared with the bookmakers odds.
NFL betting model
NFL is one of the sharpest sports to bet and it is one of the biggest mistakes many rookie bettors make, because they think they know the sport. But NFL is not the same as NFL betting. In NFL betting you are going against the smartest minds in sports betting World and most advanced betting algorithms that only bookmakers poses. So I focused on creating a simple betting model for NFL, where the goal is the same as in simple basketball model above. To project the spreads, totals and then compare with bookmakers spreads.
Soccer betting model
Soccer is one of the most popular sports to bet Worldwide. Fans love soccer and this is where they place a lot of bets. I love soccer too. I have created a betting model for Bundesliga 2, where I show you how to estimate 1X2 odds.
CBB betting model
CBB is basically latest betting model, that I have created and it was basically made because one student, my friend asked me to do this and help him with the ideas. I created this simple model and analysed more than 1000 games.
I was looking for different discrepancies between spreads. 5 PTS, 6 PTS, 7 PTS, 8 PTS, 9 PTS and 10 PTS.
All results above 7 PTS difference were profitable and the best record was if we are looking for 9 PTS difference: 124-95.
More unique sports betting model
One of the biggest value that our students get is that they are confident to explore and create new sports betting models.
Once you start looking at sports betting completely differently than 97% of all who lose or just look for picks, this is where you have a true chance to win.
In our secret chat group I see some amazing betting systems and models for different leagues and sports, like Rugby betting model, Japan baseball betting model, different soccer leagues models, Aussie rules betting models,…
A Journey into the World of Profitable Sports Betting
Learn What It Really Takes To Be Successful a Sports Handicapper
the cool stuff You can learn from me
IS THIS THE RIGHT PRICE FOR YOU?
Ask yourself three questions:
- How much would you pay to get all betting algorithms from a bettor who is making a profit?
- How much money you lost in last years betting + paying for picks?
- And how much would you pay for something that can change your betting experience forever?
Bettors are constantly paying from $100 up to $25,000 per month for sports betting tips.
It’s not even a fair comparison with the course, all betting templates and lifetime access, that are based on real resuls!
Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a life.
I am teaching you how to catch a fish!
Questions asked before joining betting course
I’m not a beginner, will this course help me?
It is for everyone! This course was created with beginners in mind. But it’s also a great choice if you’ve been successfully betting for a while and feel like you’re not making much progress or if you just stuck somewhere and would like to refresh your knowledge, get some new ideas and see how I do it. Experienced bettors and professionals will improve their betting knowledge. And we all know, that improving all the time is the key for success.
In fact, the A Journey course has helped lots of advanced bettors and improve their betting experience.
What if I need help?
I’m here for you. When you buy the course, you get direct access to me via emails. If you have questions about the course, just write me an email and I’ll be happy to help.
I’m busy right now, can I use the course later?
Once you buy A journey course, you have access to videos forever. You can start using it now, in one week or in 5 years. Of course the sooner you start, the sooner you’ll be able to bet on your own and create your own simple betting models. Don’t wait, time is passing! You can watch it unlimited times. And don’t forget, that every next update is free of charge.
Do I need any extra math knowledge to follow and understand predictive models?
No. All my models are easy to understand and created with one of the most friendly tools out there – google sheets. There are other some more complex programming languages like python for example, where bettors can create their own betting models, but for majority of bettors such things are too hard. This is why I wanted to offer something, that anyone can use right away and will boost chances in sports betting. After all, I use this for myself and I you will see that you can do a lot of great work with sheets.
What tools will I need to complete the course?
You will only need a computer, internet and an email account. Thats’s it.
Can I pay with PayPal and what are other payment options?
- Unfortunately paypal option is NOT available.
- You can pay with VISA/MASTERCARD (pay button)
- You can pay with Bitcoins (send me email at email@example.com and I will give you full support how to do it).
I want only one sport, can I buy it separately?
Yes, it is possible to get courses separately too in some cases – please contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org.
we would love to hear from you
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